Tesla is currently facing an “unprecedented demand,” according to a Wall Street analyst after a visit with management at Gigafactory Berlin.
Despite the price for its electric vehicles going up significantly this year, there have been many indications that Tesla is experiencing strong demand. We reported on Tesla’s order rate surging to record highs in the US when gas prices went up earlier this year. Tesla even stopped taking orders on some versions of its vehicles because the backlogs were becoming too long.
Last week, Tesla held an event for analysts at Gigafactory Berlin, and Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research participated.
In a note to clients, Ferragu noted that he sees Tesla facing “unprecedented demand”:
Tesla is facing unprecedented demand. Everybody I know at Tesla and with whom I could discuss that topic agrees that demand is way above what hopes were a few years ago. Electric cars are so popular that for Tesla and their competitors, market shares will mostly be dictated by their ability to ramp volumes.
The analyst came out of the visit, impressed by the efficiency of Gigafactory Berlin.
Compared to Fremont, Berlin is visibly much more efficient. Logistics inside the factory are much simpler, eased by docks surrounding the fab from all sides and ensuring parts come in at the right place in the manufacturing chain. The single manufacturing line is designed for a cycle time of 45 seconds and will deliver 10,000 cars per week at full capacity. (On a side note, it takes just above 5 full days non-stop to do 10,000 cars at 45 seconds per car, so this target accounts for a healthy 25% downtime.) Most importantly, cars are manufactured today with a rear casting, and will shift to rear and front casting as soon as the 4680 structural battery packs will be available.
Ferragu has a price target of $530 on Tesla’s stock, which represents a significant upside on the current value of $275 a share.
Long term, Ferragu even sees a case for Tesla being worth $10 trillion by 2030, but that’s based on the automaker achieving its goal to produce 20 million electric vehicles per year by then. For comparison, that’s about four times Apple’s current valuation.
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